New poll would see SNP lose control of Scottish Parliament

The Scottish Nationalists would lose 7 MSPs and even along with the Scottish Green Party would not be able to form a government, according to new polling released by Panelbase.

If the projections were replicated at the next set of Scottish elections, the SNP would drop to 56 MSPs, with the Greens gaining a single additional MSP.  The majority of these gains would go to Labour, who are projected to increase their seat total by four, with the Tories gaining two. The Liberal Democrats would remain on their current level of five overall.

It is unclear who would be able to form a government if this poll was repeated at the election, as the SNP would be unable to govern without the support of a party which opposes its stance on independence. It’s a further indication of the new tripartite party system developing in Scotland, as the era of one party domination comes to a close.

In another blow for the SNP, a further 55 per cent of those polled also opposed another independence referendum in the near future.

The SNP's Derek Mackay attempted to put a brave face on the findings, commenting: “The SNP will never take our support for granted, and will always work hard to deliver the very best for Scotland.”

Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said:“There is still limited enthusiasm for holding another independence referendum, while support for leaving the UK remains little different from the outcome of the ballot four years ago,”

“Meanwhile, there is little sign that the UK government’s stance is costing the Conservatives support north of the border, while SNP support remains short of what the party needs to be sure there might still be a pro-independence majority in the next Scottish parliament.”

“Nicola Sturgeon must be hoping that last week’s walkout by SNP MPs brings the party’s case home to voters in a way that so far the party has seemingly failed to do.”

Holyrood List Vote;
SNP - 36% (-6)
Con - 26% (+3)
Lab - 23% (+4)
Green - 7% (nc)
Lib Dem - 6% (+1)

Holyrood Constituency Vote;
SNP - 40% (-7)
Con - 28% (+6)
Lab - 24% (+1)
Lib Dem - 6% (-2)

Seat projection;
SNP - 56 (-7)
Con - 33 (+2)
Lab - 28 (+4)
Green - 7 (+1)
Lib Dem - 5 (nc)

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